Coronavirus Predictions from Good Judgment
How many total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported/estimated as of 31 March 2021?
- As of today 26% of the superforecasters say Between 230k and 2.3M.
- 48% of the superforecasters say more than 2.3M but less than 23M.
- 24% say between 23M and 230M.
How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported/estimated as of 31 March 2021?
- 22% say between 3,500 and 35,000.
- 58% say more than 35,000 but less than 350,000.
- 18% say between 350,000 and 3.5M.
For reference as of this moment Johns Hopkins via arcgis.com says the US has 80,021 cases and 1,136 deaths.
As an aside here is a great paper with methodology explaining predictions from IHME at the University of Washington. IHME projects about 50,000 deaths by the end of April.